Lower Lows

[Adam Brooks]

Today long term investors are totally fuct. Futures are down 550 points.... the MAX the futures can move over night. This is the beginning of the last leg of our stock market crash. I'm almost certain we'll finish below 8000 today.

Ive never seen futures maxed out like this

[07ROUSHSTG3]

yup. everybody hold on, it is going to be a fast ride straight down once the market opens!

[jbiscuit]

get ready. No surprise our economy was tanking...sure it had an upswing there for a few days but that was probably just people getting into the market to make a quick buck and then get back out. This downward spiral should continue for awhile yet. And we should see a lot more forclosed homes in southeastern WI soon too once WE Energies starts mailing out heat bills...natural gas is up something like 30% over last year. $350-500/month heating bills here we come!

[HY35F2T]

get ready. No surprise our economy was tanking...sure it had an upswing there for a few days but that was probably just people getting into the market to make a quick buck and then get back out. This downward spiral should continue for awhile yet. And we should see a lot more forclosed homes in southeastern WI soon too once WE Energies starts mailing out heat bills...natural gas is up something like 30% over last year. $350-500/month heating bills here we come!

pretty much why i sleep in a snowsuit and 10 blankets lol.

[kornholio788]

Thank the lord for apts with heat included in the rent!!:headbang

[07ROUSHSTG3]

luckily my house in insulated like a space shuttle. most expensive heat bill i ever saw last year was $130. heat is set at 72 and is not touched. natural gas.

[CobraSnake]

luckily my house in insulated like a space shuttle. most expensive heat bill i ever saw last year was $130. heat is set at 72 and is not touched. natural gas.

yeah I need some crazy amounts of insulation really bad. My house is hot as hell in the summer and cold as all hell in the winter. I got frost on my windows some so i'm sure they are part of the problem. Although I was figuring that I should blow some more insulation in the attic and hope it helps the problem. $250 for a heat bill on a 900sqft house is ridiculous.

Mark

[Karps TA]

NG has actually been dropping to staying steady. I think WE annouced just a couple weeks ago that due to the drops they expect prices to no longer go up 30% like they were predicting, but only maybe half of that.

Heck, OPEC annouced cutting production and the price of oil dropped $5.

[PonyKiller87]

NG has actually been dropping to staying steady. I think WE annouced just a couple weeks ago that due to the drops they expect prices to no longer go up 30% like they were predicting, but only maybe half of that.

Heck, OPEC annouced cutting production and the price of oil dropped $5.

Yeah the expected rise in NG prices hasn't happened. And OPEC can cut production all they want, if the stock market keeps tanking prices will keep falling.

[Prince Valiant]

Ive never seen futures maxed out like thisReally? An old hand such as yourself?

[Feature Pony]

You know what pi$$es me off in this economy is that americans became so lazy to purchase crap from China because they didn't want to pay X amount of dollars for products made in america. When I buy things its like having to find a needle in a hay stack to find something made in america. Its just crazy we give so much work to china its unbelievable. Our military has so much crap from China, I'm waiting on the day China tells us to go blow ourselfs and here we will sit because of the dam tree huggers we won't be able to make new factories cause they will pollute and here we will sit with our heads in our a$$. Its the dam tree huggers for one to get anything that pollutes out of america and it the dam cheapness of big businesses that sell out to China for a profit. Our government sold out by giving out loans to people that should of never of got them! This whole thing could of never happened but since everyone is selling their souls for a buck these days I guess there is no turning back now. I guess the people of america will have the last laugh when everyone is unemployed and we can't afford to even buy the crap made in China you know some CEO is going to be like why is nobody buying or stuff, well Mr. CEO nobody has no money to buy your S***! God and you got to love CEO greed with golden parachute bonuses WTF. Sorry for the Rant the bad thing is middle america has no control over this and it pi$$es me the f*** off!

Oh and you got to love the tree huggers in madison that want to get rid of the power plant there and they don't want a grid sytem there either, I say lets shut off the power in their condos for a couple of days to see who will be the first ones b****ing about it.

[Adam Brooks]

DJIA is a rocket right now, we may actually pull this one off, lets keep our fingers crossed

[Sprayaway Fox]

Looks like you need to invest in a crack dealer to plan your retirement nowadayz.:fire

[Nick]

My long term investments will be fine. :shrug: I'm not worried at all.

[Silver86]

i love roller coaster rides :goof

[Adam Brooks]

closed at 8378 as of now, not good bc that's breaking 10 days of holding above 8500 after the big title wave of selling starting 10/6. Daily chart looks incredibly bearish. Monday shall be interesting to say the least.

this is why im not an investor.

[Nick]

closed at 8378 as of now, not good bc that's breaking 10 days of holding above 8500 after the big title wave of selling starting 10/6. Daily chart looks incredibly bearish. Monday shall be interesting to say the least.

this is why im not an investor.


How is it not bad though either? Could have been 7378. Honestly, this is a fear and emotion driven market right now. Nobody knows wtf they are doing. It's a cleansing period and peopl eare going to be in trouble. Especially those looking at retirement soon, but for those of us who are young enough to deal with this common event. This has happened before and it will happen again.

If anything this is an opportunistic time to buy and hold. Very inexpensive stock prices mean buy now or hold what you have.

It's common to see long term inventments get interrupted like this. It's short term fear driving this market up and down the way it is.

Have no fear, my friends (McCain lol) it will all be fine.

[Adam Brooks]

Nick, i appreciate your thoughts. however, there is much much much more at work here than fear driving the markets up and down.

Crashes are historically common, yes. Crashes to this extent with such screwed up fundamentals are not since this is the first one ever.

Definitely not a good time to buy and hold for anyone for another million reasons. My annualized return is out performing the DJIA by 62.82% by not holding anything over night let alone for the "long term". That means im up 31.79% annualized and up ~18% in the past 3 weeks. That's all verified by my broker so its not like I'm pulling numbers out of my ass. Turns out im ranked 94th in the country for returns as of today as well.

The dow closing under 8500 is not good from a technical standpoint bc its a break in key support levels in the market indicating a further decrease.

so dont throw any money into the market right now.



I need wayyyyyyy more insulation in my house

[wrath]

It's more of a correction. People and businesses were being given more and more without the ability to repay. The lowest number I have found on the run-ups on Real Estate in SE WI is 37% adjusted for inflation since 2000. I know for a fact that no one saw a 37% raise. In fact, people in SE WI are actually poorer today than in 2000.

We've got a long ways to go kiddies.

[Prince Valiant]

I know for a fact that no one saw a 37% raise. I don't know how you could check that fact, but since 2000 I've more than tripled my salary :confused

So now you know 1.


As to why the stock market keeps going down, I can't help but think this is partly due to a sell-off simply because many investors wisely see what's coming ahead. Frankly, an Obama presidency.

With calls to raise capital gains taxes, increase taxes on both corporate's dwindling profits and the dividends they pay out, and removing legal loopholes; why take the same risk as before, with promises of smaller returns? Investors, imo, are going to use their money elsewhere to make money...and it won't be in the US most likely.

This isn't too unlike the great depression imo...when FDR raised the income tax rates on the rich to a whopping 95%. What happened? Much of the capital for investment dried up. Those that had money effectively hid it from the gov't, putting it to use elsewhere, and not where it would help US citizens by normal investments which create jobs and opportunities for others to become wealthy themselves.

Personally, I DO think the business cycle is a powerful presence; things, no matter who is president, will begin to look up at some point (though I'd argue that it'd happen sooner and more dramatically with the drastically different policies McCain has put forth). But it was but dumb good fortune that Meg and I moved a significant amount of money out of the market well before the crash...it'll be a while before I begin to feel the confidence to move it right back in, and we'll certainly look at other avenues to grow our money instead of the market.

[Al]

Sorry, Valiant, but I'm going to disect your post. No disrespect, just another opinion.


I don't know how you could check that fact, but since 2000 I've more than tripled my salary :confused

So now you know 1.

You are truly a rare breed if you have managed to do that well. It seems that most people I know are simply worse of now than they were a month, year, or 5 years ago.



As to why the stock market keeps going down, I can't help but think this is partly due to a sell-off simply because many investors wisely see what's coming ahead. Frankly, an Obama presidency.

I don't think that all of these proposed changes in policy will result in such a drastic drop in the market.

The US has been building up to this for some time.

IMO- It is not that what is to come is bad (politics). I think that what has gone on for the past few years is better than good. We have been on a high cloud and now we are going back to reality. I percieve the market as experiencing a hangover, not influenza. The problem is that most cannot tell the difference.



With calls to raise capital gains taxes, increase taxes on both corporate's dwindling profits and the dividends they pay out, and removing legal loopholes; why take the same risk as before, with promises of smaller returns? Investors, imo, are going to use their money elsewhere to make money...and it won't be in the US most likely.

One of the reasons for corporate and capital gains tax might go up is because SO much money has been invested in the stock market. The way cash flowed in the US in the recent past was nothing like this. Everyone is investing in investors. If you turn on the TV, I'd say that 1 out of 5 commercials is for some firm.

Trades happen so rapidly that corporations have literally no time to react. I had some insight into an investment firm earlier today where they focused all of their time on rapidly buying and selling stock from individual companies all day long. The terms of these investments were measured in minutes, not months and years.

As I see it, the modern investor has a very short sight. CORRECTION, I mean trader. This is all short term now. You can ride the stock market all day long and make 20-30%+ a day while the market is on its way down.

I tend to tell people that just because stocks are down, it does not mean that traders/investors are not making money.



This isn't too unlike the great depression imo...when FDR raised the income tax rates on the rich to a whopping 95%. What happened? Much of the capital for investment dried up. Those that had money effectively hid it from the gov't, putting it to use elsewhere, and not where it would help US citizens by normal investments which create jobs and opportunities for others to become wealthy themselves.

We are not about to see taxes shift that much.

Question: how much will taxes change when(if) Obama becomes president?



Personally, I DO think the business cycle is a powerful presence; things, no matter who is president, will begin to look up at some point (though I'd argue that it'd happen sooner and more dramatically with the drastically different policies McCain has put forth). But it was but dumb good fortune that Meg and I moved a significant amount of money out of the market well before the crash...it'll be a while before I begin to feel the confidence to move it right back in, and we'll certainly look at other avenues to grow our money instead of the market.

Does that mean you are part of the problem? (sorry, had to)


BTW- what do you think about the derivatives maket. I have heard that its value is approximately 10 times the GDP of. . .Earth. How the hell did something like that come about!

[wrath]

I don't know how you could check that fact, but since 2000 I've more than tripled my salary :confused

So now you know 1.


What do you do for a living?

Were you grossly underpaid or lacked skills? Have you acquired some new miracle skills? Have you changed professions?

IT people make substantially less than they did in 2000. Engineers are coming back but that's only due to the fact that there are 90,000 vacancies each year and only 70,000 graduates.

What I'm saying is the same work done 8 years ago is paid less than it is today, adjusted for inflation.

Three times $12,000/year is only $36,000. Three times $80,000/year is $240,000. In 2000 I was in College. I make roughly 30x what I did then. I make twice what I did last year prior to moving here. But I still don't make much money. So your "tripled my salary" is pretty vague.

[nismodave]

Im so sick of ******* Doom and Gloom BS.

The Market goes up, the Market goes down. If you cant take the good with the bad, dont invest.

[Prince Valiant]

You are truly a rare breed if you have managed to do that well. It seems that most people I know are simply worse of now than they were a month, year, or 5 years ago.I just had a wedding...all three guys standing up in my wedding, AND my photographer are all well ahead of where they were in 2000 (best man ~ 100%, bro ~150%, groomsman ~ 200%...photographer, unsure...but I know he's well ahead. All of them for various but not wholly unique reasons). Yes, I have tripled my salary, pointing out that his statement of "fact" that he knew no one's gotten a 37% raise is in fact, useless hyperbole.


I don't think that all of these proposed changes in policy will result in such a drastic drop in the market.

The US has been building up to this for some time.I don't deny that the fall isn't fueled solely by the prospects of policy changes...hence I took the pains to both italize and boldface "partly".


One of the reasons for corporate and capital gains tax might go up is because SO much money has been invested in the stock market. The way cash flowed in the US in the recent past was nothing like this. Everyone is investing in investors. If you turn on the TV, I'd say that 1 out of 5 commercials is for some firm.You act as investing is a bad thing. I don't know what to say to that as I don't understand the benifit of putting money under the matress


We are not about to see taxes shift that much.Yes we are...Obama claims to have accounted for each of his dollar of his new 4.3 trillion in new proposed spending (IE, by raising capital gains/closing "loopholes"/increasing taxes on corporations/small businesses/etc). At most, he's optimistically only cut 55 billion from future military spending (a hopelessly optomistic and quite made up number). Where do you think


Question: how much will taxes change when(if) Obama becomes president?Truth is, no one knows really...as stated before, he promises HUGE increases in gov't spending at 4.3 trillion, but the sum total of his tax plan, even in a good economy will probably at best raise only ~900 billion..or 3.4 trillion short in that time. So where does the rest come from? How much can you ride on the backs of corporations, energy (in the form of "cap and trade" carbon energy credits), small businesses making over 250,000/yr (12.5% of them...or as Obama says, next to none of them), and those making 250,000/yr?


Does that mean you are part of the problem? (sorry, had to)Nope, the problem isn't because people like me don't want to MAKE bad or more risky investments.



What do you do for a living? I'm an Athletic Trainer

Were you grossly underpaid or lacked skills? Have you acquired some new miracle skills? Have you changed professions? Nope. I was paid an average amount for my experience, in my location, and for my position in 2000. I didn't lack skills to be what I am now, but due to being a professional, I've aqquired considerable skill since...I'm hardly overpaid (some would argue 'bout that), but I do make more than the average for those with similar experience/position. But I'm still just an Athletic Trainer with only minimal oversight/management duties that only minimally affect my pay. I am fortunate to have been recruited and hired by individuals who recognized and wanted my skills, and paid for me to join their companies.


IT people make substantially less than they did in 2000. Engineers are coming back but that's only due to the fact that there are 90,000 vacancies each year and only 70,000 graduates.Focusing on jobs that experienced their own bubbles/downtrends wholly unreleated to the economy hardly represents job market as a whole.


What I'm saying is the same work done 8 years ago is paid less than it is today, adjusted for inflation. Well, you SAID you knew for a fact no one saw a 37% raise. I'm not sure what phonetic/ebonic/or other pronunciation or interpretation would lead me to conclude you actually said otherwise.


Three times $12,000/year is only $36,000. Three times $80,000/year is $240,000. In 2000 I was in College. I make roughly 30x what I did then. I make twice what I did last year prior to moving here. But I still don't make much money. So your "tripled my salary" is pretty vague.It's a 200% raise...or 163 percentage points gtreater than what you knew for a fact no one's experienced in terms of wage increases. Even your own case, by my math equals 100% since last year. Since 2000, 2900%.

Yes, I know it was a flippant reply...but such is what is deserved when the absolutes break out like that. The fact is, you DO know people who've recieved more than a 37% increase in wages since 2000...why you said otherwise, I don't know.

[Al]

I just had a wedding...all three guys standing up in my wedding, AND my photographer are all well ahead of where they were in 2000 (best man ~ 100%, bro ~150%, groomsman ~ 200%...photographer, unsure...but I know he's well ahead. All of them for various but not wholly unique reasons). Yes, I have tripled my salary, pointing out that his statement of "fact" that he knew no one's gotten a 37% raise is in fact, useless hyperbole.

I'm up about 50% from last year and I am working half of the hours that I used to work. Then again, I'm still not making very much.


I don't deny that the fall isn't fueled solely by the prospects of policy changes...hence I took the pains to both italize and boldface "partly".
Good point.


You act as investing is a bad thing. I don't know what to say to that as I don't understand the benifit of putting money under the matress.

I don't think investing is bad. I just think of it as fire: be careful or you might get burned. Lately, it seems that if you light a candle and then blink, your whole house burns down.


Yes we are...Obama claims to have accounted for each of his dollar of his new 4.3 trillion in new proposed spending (IE, by raising capital gains/closing "loopholes"/increasing taxes on corporations/small businesses/etc). At most, he's optimistically only cut 55 billion from future military spending (a hopelessly optomistic and quite made up number). Where do you think

I was hoping for a percentage difference.


Truth is, no one knows really...as stated before, he promises HUGE increases in gov't spending at 4.3 trillion, but the sum total of his tax plan, even in a good economy will probably at best raise only ~900 billion..or 3.4 trillion short in that time. So where does the rest come from? How much can you ride on the backs of corporations, energy (in the form of "cap and trade" carbon energy credits), small businesses making over 250,000/yr (12.5% of them...or as Obama says, next to none of them), and those making 250,000/yr?

Here is how I tend to look at taxes:
4.3 trillion / 300 million people = 14,000$ increase in taxes per person.
If 4.3 trillion is to extend over 4 years, then 3600$/year. This does not include the percent that do not pay taxes.


Nope, the problem isn't because people like me don't want to MAKE bad or more risky investments.
Understandable. I wasn't criticizing you before, just poking fun. One person on Fox News said that you were the enemy a week or two ago.


I'm an Athletic Trainer?
You sound like a lawyer/politician/reporter! I'd never guess you were an athletic trainer.

[wrath]

I just had a wedding...all three guys standing up in my wedding, AND my photographer are all well ahead of where they were in 2000 (best man ~ 100%, bro ~150%, groomsman ~ 200%...photographer, unsure...but I know he's well ahead. All of them for various but not wholly unique reasons). Yes, I have tripled my salary, pointing out that his statement of "fact" that he knew no one's gotten a 37% raise is in fact, useless hyperbole.

37% increase over inflation. Say inflation is 4%/year only including the cost of food and energy (forget housing). Let's say someone in 2000 made $40,000/year fresh out of college.

2001: $40,000 * 1.04 = $41,600
2002: $41,600 * 1.04 = $43,264
2003: $43,264 * 1.04 = $45,860
2004: $45,860 * 1.04 = $47,694
2005: $47,694 * 1.04 = $49,602
2006: $49,602 * 1.04 = $51,586
2007: $51,586 * 1.04 = $53,649
2008: $53,649 * 1.04 = $55,795 (which happens to be about what someone makes today with an engineering degree fresh out of college)

($55795 - $40,000) / $40,000 = 39% increase... but really you're just plodding along at inflation.

In order to get a 37% increase OVER inflation, you'd have to be making nearly twice what you did in year 2000.



I'm an Athletic Trainer
Nope. I was paid an average amount for my experience, in my location, and for my position in 2000. I didn't lack skills to be what I am now, but due to being a professional, I've aqquired considerable skill since...I'm hardly overpaid (some would argue 'bout that), but I do make more than the average for those with similar experience/position. But I'm still just an Athletic Trainer with only minimal oversight/management duties that only minimally affect my pay. I am fortunate to have been recruited and hired by individuals who recognized and wanted my skills, and paid for me to join their companies.

You get paid for your skillset. You don't get paid more the next year just because you're still there. No one pays based on "seniority" anymore. It's all market-based pay. If it isn't, you're probably in a union. A 45 year old secretary with the same skills as a 22 year old secretary get paid the same.

What I'm saying is that someone that did the same thing 8 years ago as they do today isn't making 37% more than they were those 8 years ago, adjusted for inflation. They actually make less.

That's why we're where we're at. People kept up with the Jones by borrowing from the Smiths when each year they were further in the hole.


Focusing on jobs that experienced their own bubbles/downtrends wholly unreleated to the economy hardly represents job market as a whole.

Everything has trends. Do you think there is going to be a market for overpriced lifecoaches tomorrow? I'm willing to bet they made a lot more in 2005 than in 2000. They probably are jobless now.


Well, you SAID you knew for a fact no one saw a 37% raise. I'm not sure what phonetic/ebonic/or other pronunciation or interpretation would lead me to conclude you actually said otherwise.

I'm sorry, I wasn't clear. I thought it was implied that it should be adjusted for inflation. And I was being a smartass by saying "no one". I changed it to "not everyone" below. The census says that the average wage today for Waukesha County is less than it was 8 years ago, adjusted for inflation.


The lowest number I have found on the run-ups on Real Estate in SE WI is 37% adjusted for inflation since 2000. I know for a fact that no one (not everyone) saw a 37% raise, adjusted for inflation.

[Adam Brooks]

PV's points are totally valid from his 1st post, there's lots and lots and lots of stuff going on and everything in intertwined. That's whats making this such a big deal and will result in quite a bit of time to eventually chill out.

on another note:
GE is even fuct and seeking help from the FED to keep GE finance alive... their #1 money maker and now #1 money loser! Its no surprise jack welch is on CNBC every morning talking out of his ass ever since the bailout was up for the vote. Jack.. the CEO of america speaking highly of the bailout on the network GE owns. And now they want $$, bastards. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aDJkIbQuQxFc
Then they spin this “This is a way for us to demonstrate our support for what the Fed is doing, which is providing all-around liquidity,”. by keeping your shitty company alive w/ tax payer money

GE was always able to get short term rates well under anyone in the country bc of their strength. Now since GE finance is cooked, they are turning to the FED since they are no longer able to get interest rates to their liking from the private/commercial sector.

i have zero respect for Jack or GE.... the only good thing about this is every floor trader on there calling out jack all over the place bc he has no clue what hes talking about. ridiculous

Still way way early but futures down another 513pts

[wrath]

I was wrong, there was an article in today's Journal Sentinel that said wages have gone up 34% since 1999 and they didn't say it was adjusted for inflation. Include things like healthcare (which is what this article is about) and life sucks even more.

http://wrath.com/temp/healthcare_wages.jpg